The black hand behind a weak dollar for the world economy

The US grows more than Europe, go to face the risks and rates Draghi spent artillery, it does not prevent the euro appreciate by 5% against the dollar in 2016 ... This weakening the "Greenback"?

"We will refrain from competitive devaluation undertaken and we can not use the exchange rate for competitive purposes", repeatedly recite the aseptic press the Group of 20, the club of the most important economies in the world. A prayer routine that attempts to dispel any suspicion that involves concerted unilateral moves or currencies. A blade of accounts, agreements such as the Court or the Louvre, which allowed an orchestrated response to devalue the dollar, may be exceeded.

No ban after the grisly start to the year, which came to clear up to 12 percent of the MSCI All-World Nation file and has raised fears among investors, the rumor mill and bisbiseos grabbed trays of investment and consumer and business confidence. the economy, the second largest in the world and the pillar that supports China trade relations of other emerging countries, seemed to derail idling.

While the bleeding of its foreign exchange reserves served Withers as puny to capital flight and elucubraban operators with the continued devaluation of the yuan, the dollar continued its ascent, one of the fastest in the last four decades, after the mouth wood left by the first rate hike this side an Atlantic since mid-2006 as the greenback pulled the chest, the rest of world currencies were infected last year a generalized devaluation, which erased more 4 percent in the value of the yuan, a rise of 14 percent in the price of the euro and more than 30 percent of the cost of a true Brazilian.

Oil suffered its specific descent into hell. January 20, 2016, a barrel of oil fell more than 5 percent and in the weeks fulfilled the prophecies of soothsayers lose the psychological barrier of $ 30 per barrel. Contrary to what we assumed theorists, the degradation of energy has not finished stimulate consumption, at least in the US, where shale producers suffered the consequences of their leverage and strength dollar also struck the profit margin of its multinationals.

Macerated with a remedy to the disaster, the meeting of Ministers of Economy and Finance and Central Bank Governors of the G-20 took place on 26 and 27 February in Shanghai added more wood to the string of conspiracy theories that flood the market. Allegedly, and behind the scenes, the US, the Eurozone, Japan, China and the IMF agreed in secret to stop the advance of the dollar, which would support Beijing's measures to stabilize its economy, boost gross assist exporting countries and give US companies a break.

"This thought seems exaggerated, not where to start," said Ethan Harris, chief economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which justifies the consistent fall of the dollar "policy accommodative central banks after collective stuns as slow global growth and tighter conditions in the capital markets. "a position shared also the head of the IMF itself, Christine Lagarde, who in April CNBC assured that if such an agreement materialized, everything was done behind his back.

With or without Shanghai Agreement, it is true that the dollar has depreciated by more than 4 percent so far this year, "so the American multinationals outweigh domestic companies focused on a 6 percent," said Bhupinder Singh, an analyst at JP Morgan. The greenback was played this week in 18 months minimum at its junction with the yen while the euro has surpassed the mark of $ 1.16, which had not happened since the tragic summer of 2015, when China beat world markets with a first surprise, the devaluation of its currency. Coincidence or not, a barrel of oil has exceeded 46 dollars 21 April and only in the US, West Texas rose 20 percent last month accumulated. "Product of the rally, some of the most important values ​​of oil exceeded 33 percent of black behavior less tied to gold energy companies," Singh said.

malice aforethought

If we look at the messages by telegraph in 2016 Fed may notice some premeditation, especially after the appearance of Janet Yellen on March 29 at the Economic Club of New York, where he admitted that the inflation outlook "were a bit more uncertain. " At BNP Paribas, its foreign exchange strategists warned in a report that there are compelling reasons that the dollar will not regain their power. "? A dollar rally would have a downward effect on commodity prices and rekindle fears about the Chinese currency, the factors that derailed the financial markets earlier this year, "they said.

As evidenced Shahab Jalinoos, strategist at Credit Suisse, the weak dollar has an explanation: the recovery of oil prices and the consequent increase in export currency countries. "The currencies of oil exporters child the essential cause of dollar weakness ?, Said ?. Currencies such as the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar have contributed much to the weak dollar estadoundiense policy divergence in Japan and the euro area" he said.

That said, the consulting firm IHS Worldwide Knowledge, its Chief Economist, Nariman Behravesh, said that the dollar will depreciate any more than it has done so far and start to gain strength against the yen and as the euro strengthened again to raise rates. "This type of child movement double-edged sword, because Europe and Japan in particular, are unable to cope with this kind of currency appreciation," says. A projection which also shares John Shin, strategist at BofAML who believes that "the dollar will catch strength, to achieve parity with the euro at the end of the year."

Although the market does not deduct a further increase of 25 basis points at the next meeting on 15 June (only 16.9 percent as expected), as both IHS BofAML expect a return of monetary nut . Goldman Sachs, the team led by Jay Hatzius estimated Yellen and his boys will raise rates three times this year, a fact that, if passed, will make the land of friendly understanding that today governs the market currency, income and variable raw materials.